A recent report from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) has highlighted the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the job market in the UK. According to the study, there is a looming ‘job apocalypse’ that could affect over eight million jobs nationwide if immediate government action is not taken.
The report outlines two main stages of AI adoption. The first stage, already in progress, puts 11 percent of tasks currently performed by UK workers at risk. Tasks such as database management and scheduling are among those most vulnerable to automation.
In a second wave of AI adoption, up to 59 percent of tasks could be handled by AI, impacting higher-paying jobs and non-routine cognitive tasks like database creation.
Bhargav Srinivasa Desikan, a Senior Research Fellow at IPPR, expressed concerns about the potential impact on jobs such as copywriting, graphic design, and personal assistant roles. He emphasized the importance of steering technological advancements towards creating new job opportunities, boosting productivity, and ensuring economic benefits for all.
IPPR has modeled three scenarios for the impact of the second wave of AI adoption:
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- Worst case: 7.9 million jobs lost with no GDP gains
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- Central case: 4.4 million jobs lost but 6.3 percent GDP growth (£144 billion/year)
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- Best case: No jobs lost and a 13 percent GDP boost (£306 billion/year) from augmenting at-risk jobs
The report urges government intervention to prevent the worst-case scenario, proposing a “job-centric” AI strategy that includes fiscal incentives, regulations for human oversight, and support for green jobs less susceptible to automation.
The analysis also highlights the disproportionate impact on specific demographics, with women and young people facing the highest risk of job displacement. Entry-level positions, commonly held by these groups, are particularly vulnerable as AI technology encroaches on roles like secretarial and customer service positions.
Carsten Jung, a Senior Economist at IPPR, emphasized the importance of managing technological transitions effectively to avoid disruption. While some occupations may be negatively affected by AI, proactive decision-making by government, employers, and unions can help ensure a positive outcome.
The full report can be accessed here (PDF).
(Photo by Cullan Smith)
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