The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that AI could enhance global productivity and growth, but it may also lead to job displacement and worsen inequality.
In a recent analysis, IMF economists studied the potential impact of AI on the global labor market. While many studies suggest that AI could automate jobs, the technology is more likely to complement human work. The IMF analysis considers both scenarios.
The results are significant: nearly 40 percent of jobs worldwide could be automated or augmented by AI.
In the past, new technologies primarily affected routine tasks, but AI has the potential to impact high-skilled roles as well. This means that advanced economies face higher risks from AI but also have the opportunity to reap more benefits compared to emerging markets.
According to the IMF research, approximately 60 percent of jobs in advanced economies could be influenced by AI. About half of these jobs could see improvements in productivity through AI integration. However, for the remaining jobs, AI may take over essential human tasks, leading to decreased labor demand, wages, and employment. In some cases, human jobs may even disappear entirely.
In emerging and developing economies, IMF economists predict that AI could impact 40 percent and 26 percent of jobs, respectively. This indicates fewer immediate disruptions from AI compared to advanced economies. However, many emerging markets lack the necessary infrastructure and skills to leverage the benefits of AI, which could exacerbate inequality between countries over time.
The IMF also warns that AI could contribute to inequality within countries. Workers who can effectively utilize AI may become more productive and earn higher wages, while those who struggle with AI adoption may fall behind.
Studies have shown that AI can enhance the productivity of less experienced workers. Younger employees may benefit more from AI opportunities, while older workers may face challenges in adapting to the technology.
Although advanced economies are better equipped for AI adoption, they still need to prioritize innovation, integration, and regulation to ensure the safe and responsible use of AI. For emerging markets, the focus should be on developing digital infrastructure and skills.
To help countries develop effective policies, the IMF has introduced an AI Preparedness Index, which evaluates readiness in areas such as digital infrastructure, human capital, innovation, and regulation. Wealthier economies like Singapore, the US, and Denmark have shown higher preparedness for AI adoption.
The era of AI has begun, and proactive measures are essential to ensure that its benefits lead to shared prosperity for all.
(Photo by Levi Meir Clancy on Unsplash)
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